The speed of progress marks a steep acceleration. Since Peter Shor’s 1994 revelation that quantum computer systems may theoretically break RSA, useful resource estimates have plummeted—from one billion qubits in 2012 to only one million right this moment.
Gartner VP Analyst Bart Willemsen warned that “quantum computing will weaken uneven cryptography by 2029.” Provided that cryptographic upgrades typically span a number of years, he urged organizations to start strategic planning now, particularly for infrastructure with hard-coded crypto dependencies. Many builders, he famous, lack deep familiarity with cryptographic libraries and hash features, making early stock, efficiency testing, and system mapping important to any sensible PQC roadmap.
Enterprise security implications
For security leaders, the analysis highlights two speedy priorities. First, encrypted communications utilizing RSA or related algorithms face acute “retailer now, decrypt later” dangers, the place intercepted knowledge could possibly be decrypted as soon as quantum computer systems obtain enough scale. Google has applied NIST-approved ML-KEM throughout Chrome and inside techniques, establishing a benchmark for securing net visitors, VPNs, and messaging platforms.
